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While it is still assumed that money in the sense of M1 is held in order to carry out transactions, this approach focuses on the potential return on various assets including money broadly defined as an additional motivation.
John Maynard Keynes , in laying out speculative reasons for holding money, stressed the choice between money and bonds. If agents expect the future nominal interest rate the return on bonds to be lower than the current rate they will then reduce their holdings of money and increase their holdings of bonds.
If the future interest rate falls, then the price of bonds will increase and the agents will have realized a capital gain on the bonds they purchased.
This means that the demand for money in any period will depend on both the current nominal interest rate and the expected future interest rate in addition to the standard transaction motives which depend on income.
The fact that the current demand for money can depend on expectations of the future interest rates has implications for volatility of money demand.
If these expectations are formed, as in Keynes' view, by "animal spirits" they are likely to change erratically and cause money demand to be quite unstable.
The portfolio motive also focuses on demand for money over and above that required for carrying out transactions.
Agents will choose a mix of these two types of assets their portfolio based on the risk-expected return trade-off. For a given expected rate of return, more risk averse individuals will choose a greater share for money in their portfolio.
Similarly, given a person's degree of risk aversion, a higher expected return nominal interest rate plus expected capital gains on bonds will cause agents to shift away from safe money and into risky assets.
Like in the other motivations above, this creates a negative relationship between the nominal interest rate and the demand for money.
Friedman and Schwartz in their work A Monetary History of the United States argued that the demand for real balances was a function of income and the interest rate.
For the time period they were studying this appeared to be true. However, shortly after the publication of the book, due to changes in financial markets and financial regulation money demand became more unstable.
Various researchers showed that money demand became much more unstable after Ericsson, Hendry and Prestwich consider a model of money demand based on the various motives outlined above and test it with empirical data.
The basic model turns out to work well for the period to and there doesn't appear to be much volatility in money demand, in a result analogous to that of Friedman and Schwartz.
This is true even despite the fact that the two world wars during this time period could have led to changes in the velocity of money. However, when the same basic model is used on data spanning to , it performs poorly.
In particular, money demand appears not to be sensitive to interest rates and there appears to be much more exogenous volatility.
The authors attribute the difference to technological innovations in the financial markets, financial deregulation, and the related issue of the changing menu of assets considered in the definition of money.
Other researchers confirmed this finding with recent data and over a longer period. Money demand appears to be time varying which also depends on household's real balance effects.
Lawrence Ball suggests that the use of adapted aggregates, such as near monies, can produce a more stable demand function. He shows that using the return on near monies produced smaller deviations than previous models.
If the demand for money is stable then a monetary policy which consists of a monetary rule which targets the growth rate of some monetary aggregate such as M1 or M2 can help to stabilize the economy or at least remove monetary policy as a source of macroeconomic volatility.
Additionally, if the demand for money does not change unpredictably then money supply targeting is a reliable way of attaining a constant inflation rate.
This can be most easily seen with the quantity theory of money equation given above. When that equation is converted into growth rates we have. Additionally, in the long run real output grows at a constant rate equal to the sum of the rates of growth of population, technological know-how, and technology in place, and as such is exogenous.
In this case the above equation can be solved for the inflation rate:. Here, given the long-run output growth rate, the only determinant of the inflation rate is the growth rate of the money supply.
In this case inflation in the long run is a purely monetary phenomenon; a monetary policy which targets the money supply can stabilize the economy and ensure a non-variable inflation rate.
This analysis however breaks down if the demand for money is not stable — for example, if velocity in the above equation is not constant.
In that case, shocks to money demand under money supply targeting will translate into changes in real and nominal interest rates and result in economic fluctuations.
An alternative policy of targeting interest rates rather than the money supply can improve upon this outcome as the money supply is adjusted to shocks in money demand, keeping interest rates and hence, economic activity relatively constant.
To help you make accurate estimates of how much you spend, Level Money connects to your financial accounts and pulls in line item transactions.
These transactions can then help you estimate your bills and spending habits. Transactions that are imported from your financial accounts appear in a list.
You can tell Level Money to ignore any unusual spending that you want excluded from your budget. Level Money's Insights page allows you to keep track of any kind of specific spending you want, such as all travel purchases or all purchases from a particular business.
And that's the heart of Millennial Money: stop hustling yourself into a breakdown and stop wasting time by managing money poorly.
Get free access to Grant's best tips along with exclusive videos, podcasts, courses and way more. Get free access to Grant's best tips along with exclusive videos, never-released podcast episodes, wealth-building how-to's, time-saving calculators, mind-blowing courses, and way more.
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